We’d Like Your Opinion Updated: Hey, Ask Your Friends, Too!

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We’d Like Your Opinion Updated: Hey, Ask Your Friends, Too!

1/12/2005

By Terry Calhoun

This week I just had to write about the new report from the PEW Internet & American Life Project titled "The Future of the Internet." Hopefully, you'll take my advice and pull up the report itself, because it's worth a lot of hours of reading and thinking.

Four hundred "experts" whose early predictions about the Internet and its impact were identified from writings and postings authored during the period 1990-1994. Those experts were located and asked to participate in a 24-question survey about the future of the Internet. They were told that they could also invite friends and colleagues with interesting perspectives to complete the survey as well. In the end, 1,286 people responded; about half of whom are described as "Internet pioneers," that is, online prior to 1993.

Before I go any further, let me be very clear as to the purpose of this week's column: I recommend that you go to The Future of the Internet and download your own copy. I'll be happy if you read the rest of this article, but you need to read the whole thing, too! The experts were asked whether or not they agreed with a list of 24 "statements" about the future of the Internet:

"At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years on the networked information infrastructure or the country's power grid."

Of all 24 statements, the highest number of experts agreed with this one. Sixty-six percent of respondents thought it would be a true prediction. Some pointed out the number nasty things already done to the Internet when they can be. Others pointed out that as the Internet itself becomes more and more important, its value as a target grows.

I found this statement to be too complex to believe that I really understand what the respondents meant. For one extreme example, I find it "devastating" when my own personal connectivity is down for even moments at a time. So, what exactly "devastate" means to respondents may be an issue in interpreting this response. Further, the question combines a statement about the Internet with one about the power grid. Certainly the two are interconnected, but with memories of the big Northeast power outage of a couple of years ago still in people's minds, it would be pretty easy to agree about an attack on the power grid. But I don't think that the two are necessarily connected.

"Enabled by information technologies, the pace of learning in the next decade will increasingly be set by student choices. In ten years, most students will spend at least part of their 'school days' in virtual classes, grouped online with others who share their interests, mastery, and skills."

This was the statement that the next-highest number of respondents agreed with, and it's one of great interest to us. It applies, of course to K-12 as well as postsecondary education. I don't think any of us disagree with this statement when applied to higher education. However, I've watched the evolution of the Ann Arbor Public School system fairly closely over the past 10 years and I am fairly pessimistic about this prediction when applied to K-12. Many years ago I created a "no bounds" e-mail discussion list which was populated by parents, a few teachers, and some administrators. The teachers and administrators were revealed over time as stupendously opposed to change and the use of information technologies. Mostly, they just "lurked," totally afraid of revealing their thoughts to "the public."